Monday, August 29, 2011

Why Do People Get Hung Up on Forecasts?

In the aftermath of Hurricane Irene, there is a more than a little finger pointing about steps taken by various governmental entities and actors based upon the forecasts of Irene, the storm's track and its intensity.
To be sure, and credit to the forecasters--there projected track could not have been more accurate, but everyone seems to be pitching a fit that the storm was not more intense when it made landfall in North Carolina--blaming the forecasters for getting it wrong.  Like it was a bad thing that the storm was not a bad as predicted. Had Irene made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane, everyone would have been pointing the finger at the forecasters for not making the correct call.

To be honest, there is a reason why I call weather forecasters--weather guessers.  Yes, they have lots and lots of data that they use to make a forecast--but in the end it is a guess, an educated guess.

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