"A War We Just Might Win"

I had to double check the banner at the top of the page to make sure of where I was, the New York Times is carrying a story by Micheal E. 'Hanlon and Kenneth M. Pollack about the war in Iraq and how there is a disconnect between the events on the ground and the debate in Washington:

Viewed from Iraq, where we just spent eight days meeting with American and Iraqi military and civilian personnel, the political debate in Washington is surreal. The Bush administration has over four years lost essentially all credibility. Yet now the administration’s critics, in part as a result, seem unaware of the significant changes taking place.

Here is the most important thing Americans need to understand: We are finally getting somewhere in Iraq, at least in military terms. As two analysts who have harshly criticized the Bush administration’s miserable handling of Iraq, we were surprised by the gains we saw and the potential to produce not necessarily “victory” but a sustainable stability that both we and the Iraqis could live with.

After the furnace-like heat, the first thing you notice when you land in Baghdad is the morale of our troops. In previous trips to Iraq we often found American troops angry and frustrated — many sensed they had the wrong strategy, were using the wrong tactics and were risking their lives in pursuit of an approach that could not work.

Today, morale is high. The soldiers and marines told us they feel that they now have a superb commander in Gen. David Petraeus; they are confident in his strategy, they see real results, and they feel now they have the numbers needed to make a real difference.

When two outspoken critics of the war are making a different assessment after having actually spent time in Iraq, one wonders where the debate in Washington is getting is material.

O'hanlon and Pollack note that the Iraqi military and police forces are gaining significant ground in terms of competency.

In the past, few Iraqi units could do more than provide a few “jundis” (soldiers) to put a thin Iraqi face on largely American operations. Today, in only a few sectors did we find American commanders complaining that their Iraqi formations were useless — something that was the rule, not the exception, on a previous trip to Iraq in late 2005.

The additional American military formations brought in as part of the surge, General Petraeus’s determination to hold areas until they are truly secure before redeploying units, and the increasing competence of the Iraqis has had another critical effect: no more whack-a-mole, with insurgents popping back up after the Americans leave.

If these asessments are even close to accurate, the problem in Iraq is not military but their civilian leadership. A strong military is, of course, key to the success of the Iraqi security issues, but a strong civilian leadership is what will set Iraq now apart from Iraq of the past. Iraq had a strong military under Hussein, but simply having a strong and capable military force will not a democracy make. The civilian leadership is lacking in the central govenrment, but O'Hanlon and Pollack are seeing a move to decentralize administration and those local administrations are proving to be far more effective.

In short, it appears as though the Iraqis, at least some, are seeing the world through the eyes of Alexis De Tocqueville, that central rules are best administered on a local level. When the local governments, which tend to be far less sectarian and probably far less corrupt, are the ones charged with implementing the government rules, and responding to local security threats, you get a far more responsive, responsible and yes, democratic, goverment. The beauty of local politics is that a man sitting in the capital can make a decision and not have to face the consequences of his negative actions. But a local mayor has to look his townfolk in the eye everyday and if he can't lead his town to security, his people will look for someone else.

To be certain, Washington does have to answer some tough questions, but the progress the Iraqi's have shown is worth continuing the course of action we currently follow. Some Democrats won't be happy with the results no matter how rosy they might be, but if some Congressional Democrats can set aside partisanship for 20 minutes, they might see a path to victory.