�06 elections test political physics

Democratic pollster Mark Mellman makes note of a particular factor working against Democrats in 2006:

One measure of political instability: the number of Republicans holding seats that vote Democratic for president and vice versa. When big political waves hit, that is precisely where much of the action is. In the two prior presidential elections, Bush (the father) or Reagan had won 30 of the 34 seats Democratic incumbents lost in ’94. Similarly, two-thirds of the Republican incumbents who lost in ’82 were running in districts presidential Democrats had won just previously.

Today, though, there are fewer mismatched seats than at any point in recent history. Going into 1994, 53 Democrats held seats won by Bush in 1992. Today just 18 Republicans hold seats won by Kerry. So, while forces in the political environment push strongly in a Democratic direction, they are acting on a relatively stable structure: Hence the test.

Thus, because there is less ticket splitting on the national and Congressional level, there is less likely to be a massive change in party control.

This is not to say that if the GOP doesn't get its head out, that the Democrats can't win the House back, but with recent efforts on the part of Congressional Republicans to stake out a position different than the President, they may be insulating themselves (to the extent possible) against charges of being a Bush "yes man."

Of course, time will tell if Mellman's theory is right. Mellman's piece is pretty good this week, go check it out.