Blue State Extinction?

Via Real Clear Politics

In an op-ed yesterday, appearing in the USA Today, Phillip Longmannoted

What's the difference between Seattle and Salt Lake City? There are many differences, of course, but here's one you might not know. In Seattle, there are nearly 45% more dogs than children. In Salt Lake City, there are nearly 19% more kids than dogs.

This curious fact might at first seem trivial, but it reflects a much broader and little-noticed demographic trend that has deep implications for the future of global culture and politics. It's not that people in a progressive city such as Seattle are so much fonder of dogs than are people in a conservative city such as Salt Lake City. It's that progressives are so much less likely to have children.

If we assume for a moment that most children learn their politics from their parents, such a trend does not bode well for the Democrats in America. To say that liberal Democrats are a dying breed is not just rhetoric, it appears to be a fact.

Longerman continues in a similar vein

This correlation between secularism, individualism and low fertility portends a vast change in modern societies. In the USA, for example, nearly 20% of women born in the late 1950s are reaching the end of their reproductive lives without having children. The greatly expanded childless segment of contemporary society, whose members are drawn disproportionately from the feminist and countercultural movements of the 1960s and '70s, will leave no genetic legacy. Nor will their emotional or psychological influence on the next generation compare with that of people who did raise children.

I currently have two daughters. I certainly would like a son (most fathers do, despite what we say about just wanting a healthy baby), but right now the jury is out in my family on having another child, particularly since my wife has endured a two pregnancies, niether of which was particularly kind, and a couple of traumatic miscarriages. I wonder where we fit into this equation. My wife is certainly more liberal than I and we do have a mixed household politically.

At any rate, Longerman makes a great case for why conservative, some would say patriarchal, but I don't think that is necessarily the case, society is on the rise. But in America, blue states are becoming extinct, literally.

This dynamic helps explain the gradual drift of American culture toward religious fundamentalism and social conservatism. Among states that voted for President Bush in 2004, the average fertility rate is more than 11% higher than the rate of states for Sen. John Kerry.

While religious fundamentalism may present some problems, I don't fear social conservatism in America. Social Conservatism believes in a moral line, there are somethings that are right and wrong. Morality is not a ethical variable.