GOP Faces Voter Malaise?

Charlie Cook points to the GOP's Problem in 2006--voter malaise.

Historically, when parties have suffered unusually large losses in midterm elections, it has been when their voters were either complacent or disillusioned, and the other party was either hungry or angry. That turns tight races into tough losses and races that shouldn't be particularly close into nail-biters.

Keep in mind that in presidential elections, roughly half of the voting-age population participates. In midterm elections, it is roughly a third. But the drop-off in participation is hardly uniform. Voter turnout among independents is far lower in midterm elections than in presidential years, and as a result, the election is determined pretty much by partisans, and which party does a better job of getting its base out. Some of this is mechanical, and indeed Republicans have in recent years done a better job than Democrats with the mechanics. But even great mechanics and organizational efforts are limited in their effectiveness when a party's base is not motivated.

I have to admit, that this particular assessment by Cook, who is stunningly good at this sort of stuff, is right on the mark.

In a few places, the Republican base may be motivated, but it is because of state and local races that are important. For example, the GOP in MD is motivated both by the possible re-election of Gov. Bob Ehrlich, but aslo the Senate race featuring Michael Steele. Likewise, other states, like Pennsylvania and Illinois feather gubernatorial races that hold a great deal of promise. Thus, I don't necessarily agree fully with Cook's assessment.

On a national level, GOP voter apathy may be present, but we are not talking about a national election. We are talking about Congressional elections which, despite hopes by partisans on both sides, is rarely solely about national issues. Cook mentions some recent gaffs by the Bush administration, the Harriett Miers nomination, the ports deal, and the ongoing war in Iraq. But when people go to the polls in Congressioanl elections, these national issues do not play as much as role as many people, including experts, think. Congressional elections, despite their national impact, are still relatively local elections. Thus, congressional elections, despite hopes and strategies by the Democrats to make this a referendum on the Bush presidency, are rarely true referendums.

Are Democrats more motivated this year? As a national party, absolutely, but can that national motivation translate to action on the local level? In recent elections, Democrats have not demonstrated a great skill at the precinct level ground operation. Thus, while the Dems have the motivation, they may once again fall victim to the GOP's ground operation--just like they did in 2004. Then where will the Dems be?

Hat Tip: Real Clear Polictics