Translating Money Into Votes

The Washington Post is carrying a big story the "Dean Test" that Barack Obama needs to pass, that is avoiding imploding early in the primary season. I think Obama is in a much better position than Howard Dean was in 2004.

First and obvisouly, Barack Obama does not seem inclined to primal screams during his speeches, no matter how worked up he gets.

Second, Obama has the ability to learn from the past, something Dean didn't really have. Obama's campaign team certainly seems cognizant of the Dean debacle and seems to be taking steps to avoid it. Whether those steps pan out remains to be seen.

Third, Obama is in a much different place the Dean was in 2004. Despite a clearly establishment candidate in Hillary Clinton, Obama has not gone out of his way to shun the establishment and in fact has courted it. But Obama can also capitalize on a couple of fatigue issues in the Democratic party. I believe a large number of Democrats are tired of the "inevitability" of Hillary Clinton, it just happens to be Democrats that are not getting polled in national surveys. Hillary Clinton's negatives are pretty staggering and Obama is appealing to Democratic constituencies tired of the same old routine from their pols. Obama, despite his rather mainstream Democratic positions, at least gives the impression of something new.

Finally, I don't think that Dean's fundraising appeal was a deep as Obama's. 258,000 contributors from all over the country means that Obama has a base from which to proceed. People who give money are far more likely to give time. People who give money and time are likely to talk to their friends and neightbors. Broad financial support translates to broad voter support. Assuming Obama's team is working that angle, and to win they must, then Obama is in very good shape to shock the establishment early next year.

National polls have Clinton up by 15 points or so over Obama. That margin will tighten up and the Democratic nomination could extend beyond the rat's nest of primaries on Feb. 5 and Feb. 12.