Thursday, September 06, 2007

Rick Moran on Thompson's Entry

I have always like Moran's writing and this piece on Thompson is no exception. Like Moran, I am something of a closet Fred Head, and think he has a long shot at best. While some of Moran's comments regarding Thompson's need to do well in Iowa and New Hampshire (not win mind you but a solid third or even a second will help), I don't think Thompson is hurting in the organization department, Moran writes:
Does he have a chance? Realistically, no. He’s too far behind in too many states. And he is woefully outgunned financially and organizationally by both Romney and Giuliani. I haven’t read much about what his strategy will be but I think we can make some educated guesses. For Fred, he must be able to emerge on the morning of February 6 still within spitting distance of the leader who will probably be Rudy Giuliani. For that to happen, he has to hope that neither Romney or Giuliani are able to dominate the early contests, either one never getting more than a third of the delegates in any one state, while Fred is hitting threshold numbers everywhere (most states have a minimum percentage of the vote requirement in order for a candidate to get any delegates). He must also hope he can win a few primaries in the south and border states on the 5th by hefty enough margins so that he can walk away with the lion’s share of delegates.
I think Moran has succinctly summarized the strategy, and he is outgunned financially. But organizationally, I think Thompson has learned some lessons from the Howard Dean campaign and using internet tools to make a difference. A lot has been made about some of the high profile firings in teh Thompson camp, but notice who has been sacked versus who has not been sacked.

In every case I have seen reported, the sackee has been a long time aide with old school type predilections. People who haven't been fired have been new media savvy, bloggers, internet organizers and the like. These are people who can move things along with the cheap and powerful internet.

Couple that with Thompson's personal charm and presence (and it is a presence) and you don't need a lot of money (you need a good bit) or a huge organziation to win. I think that winning in these elections is going to be based on which campaign can communicate more effectively, faster than anyone else.

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