It has been a while since I posted something so blatantly partisan as to fully identify my political leanings, but here we go. In this post on Blogs for Bush, I read this post about Ken Mehlman and the RNC's attempt to reach out to minority voters--particularly black voters.
One must realize, historically, blacks voted overwhelmingly Republican in the years before the New Deal. It was only during that massive realignment did black voters, when they were allowed to vote, began voting Democratic, in large part due to the efforts of FDR and the welfare state created by the New Deal. But after 70 years of the Democrats assuming the black vote was theirs, we may be on the cusp of a new realignment. I am not talking about the next election cycle or even by 2010, but I believe the black vote may once again be in play in the near future.
Here is why. First, there is a growing black middle class, a socio-economic cohort who is not beholden to the Democratic party for their success. These are people who obtained an education--fought for it tooth and nail, essentially pulled themselves up by the bootstraps and, more importantly, have passed that legacy onto their children. This middle class is beginning to realize that the welfare state policies favored by the Democratic party no longer aid them and in fact impede the ability of their peers to succeed. At the same time, this black middle class, often socially conservative or at the very least fiscally conservative, have come to realize that the opportunities afforded them by the current administration's policies are leading to an expanded range of opportunity.
Second, President Bush has done something few Republican Presidential candidates have ever been able to do--he increased his share, both in terms of percentage and raw number of voters, among the black vote. In 2000, Bush received less than 10% of the black vote. In 2004, he increased his black vote by 2%. A modest gain to be sure, but in terms of raw voters, he greatly increased his share due to the increased turnout.
During 2004, Democrats made a push to increase turnout in the black community, but failed to provide any answers to the issues the black community considered so important--education, security, crime, etc. The only answer they got was more money promised them. But the Democrats have failed to realize that the minority communities have seen trillions of dollars spent on programs aimed to help them, but have seen no successes on a wide basis. Consequently, they are becoming disillusioned with the promise of more money, more programs. The GOP offered something different--opportunity and results. Consequently black voters are more willing and will continue to be more willing to support the GOP.
Third, and importantly, there is less and less a deep rooted connection to the successes of black leaders in 60's. The legacy of Dr. King and his contemporaries is, without a doubt, permanent. Blacks have attained political--if not social and economic--equality. But nearly 40 years after the successes of the 60's, the current generation of blacks--who are coming into their own--does not feel the deep rooted connection to the politics of the past. They are looking for their own solutions and as the 60's become more and more an era of the past, modern blacks will seek their own solutions to their problems, without feeling beholden to the strategy and tactics of earlier times or the "betrayal" of their heritage. They are making their own way and that way is not necessarily with the Democratic party.
Finally, instead of lip service about inclusion and diversity, this administration has put its money where its mouth is. This administration is the most racially diverse group of leaders ever assembled in American history. There are women, Asians, Hispanics, blacks and other minorities present in his Cabinet, in his advisors and in his judicial nominees. One cannot argue that President Bush has held any person back on account of his or her background and one could argue that President Bush has done more to advance minority opportunity at the highest levels of government than any President in history. Certainly it is obvious that President Bush has appointed the first black Secretary of State and the first female black Secretary of State. Condi Rice is the highest ranking woman of African descent ever in American history. She is but four places away from the Presidency. This President has nominated blacks, while conservative, to the courts, to the Cabinet and to other positions.
In fact, Bush's record of diversity is better than and Democrat, including President Clinton. The black community realizes this and responds to the notion that so long as the nominee agrees with Bush's general outlook, their race, background and history mean almost nothing. Furthermore, you can't argue with success, and Bush has been successful. It would be easy to ascribe political overtones to Bush's choices, but the consistency with which his administration seeks out, finds and nominates people with a consistent ideological viewpoint counters any argument that Bush is nominating minorities just to score points. Minorities, indeed everyone, can see the consistency, even if they don't agree with the results on ideological grounds--this administration may be the first true meritocracy in terms of appointments. The meritocracy appeals to black voters because it proves that if you work hard, you can achieve much.
The fact that the RNC is reaching out to black voters should not be a surprise because the audience is receptive. As the 60's generation fades away and the Generation X of blacks attains their majority and asserts their preferences, I think we will see the black vote become a competitive arena for Republicans, further reducing the Democrats to a minority party without the support of minorities.
Blogs for Bush: The Bush Effect
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