Statistics for Dummies

If you are looking for more confirmation that the people running the education system are generally in need of some additional basic education, here it is.


From the Washington Post, it appears as though many states are padding their numbers in the graduation rate category to comply with NCLB. North Carolina reported that 97% of its students graduated. But independent studies show that less than 2/3's of students actually get a diploma. How does the state explain the vast discrepancy? With this little gem:

"We know there's a problem of apples and oranges," said Janice Davis, North Carolina's acting superintendent of education. She said the state was changing its reporting system to try to get more meaningful data.

First, North Carolina needs to get a permanent superintendant of public education--not an acting one.

Second, you don't have a comparison problem, you have a crappy data problem. Fruit metaphors aside, here is how I, an average taxpayer, would calculate a graduation rate. You take the number of kids enrolling in the first year of high school, whether that is 9th or 10th grade (N). You do this statewide. You subtract out students who transfer out of state (TO). Add in those who transfer into the state (TI) and those who get held back for academic reasons (HB). Then count the number who actually graduated (G). Divide the second number by the first number to get your graduation rate. Thus the equation

G/(N+TI+HB-TO)=graduation rate. There is your meaningful data!! If you don't have this data you need to figure out a way to get the data--simple as that.

This is not hard math. But then again, I am just a taxpayer--with a J.D. I am clearly not educated enough to understand the fuzzy math of education departments claiming such ridiculous educational "victories."

But as one expert noted:

"As a nation, we spend 40 times as much money checking data on test scores as we do on whether students complete school," said Gary Oldfield, a Harvard University professor who recently completed a study of graduation rates in southern states. "Some of the data doesn't even pass the laugh test."

If true, a shocking statistic. But not all that surprising since I have noticed that schools spend a lot of money on unnecessary pursuits while ignoring important ones, like how many people actually get a diploma or teaching.

States' Graduation Data Criticized