Pelosi with Blinders On

In a recenct interview, Nancy Pelosi, the House Minority Leader, said that she would stake her repuation on picking up seats in the 2006 elections.

Six months into her second term as the top House Democrat, Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) laid out her strategy for victory in 2006 and staked her reputation on the party picking up seats in the next election.

Pelosi, in a wide-ranging interview on politics and policy, made no firm promise that her party would regain control of the House, but said if the “election were held today,” Democrats would prevail. She said Democrats are on strong footing on the major issues of the day — Social Security, the ethics of the GOP majority and the war in Iraq — and have the political machine in place to win seats.

First of all, if any partisan leader looks at polls for an election that will not happen for 15 months and think they are a lock for anything, they are smoking crack. Right now most people are asked teh question, "If the election were held today, would you vote for a Democratic or a Republican candidate?" Or something to that effect. With many people in a funk (created in part by negative reporting by the MSM), they are likely to say they would vote against the party in power--which in this case means the Democrats get some support. The problem with this line of thought is that when push comes to shove, voters hate Congress but love their Congressman, thus the high re-election rate.

As to issues, the GOP has won half the battle on Social Security--until this year, the Democrats insisted there was nothing wrong with the system, but now they admit there is a looming problem. Of course the only plans offered to date to fix the Social Security system have come from Republicans--but as I have said, the Democrats suffer from a lack of a message or ideas.

When asked whether she would at least bank her credibility on House Democratic pickups, Pelosi said: “Yes. I think we will make gains, it’s just a question of how many.”

Of course, Democrats said the same thing in 2002 and the GOP still picked up seats. This administration and the GOP has shown its ability to buck history with every election--why then should 2006 be any different?

The former Minority Whip said Democrats have enjoyed solid recruiting so far this cycle by already locking in 19 candidates in open and GOP held seats, showing record fundraising and putting together a massive rapid response effort to combat Republican proposals and attacks.

Responding to proposals and attacks, but not with anything of substance.

Pelosi said Democrats are targeting as many as 50 districts for pickups this cycle, and if they can win a third of those, they have a good shot.

Targeting 50 races at this stage is going to be a waste of money. With the need to pick up 15 seats and hold their current seats, the Democrats face a tough battle. If I were plotting strategy, I would be looking at no more than 30 races and probably 25 where efforts could be conentrated. But then again, Democrats always hold idealistic ideas instead of looking at the real situation. Of the 15 most vulnerable Republican seats, they Democrats have a realistic shot at only about 5-7. Statistically though, 13 or 14 of those vulnerable Republicans will still get re-elected.

The California Democrat said the political environment is far better for House Democrats this cycle given it is a mid-term election and history is on the minority party’s side, they no longer have the impossible hurdle of overcoming Texas redistricting and do not have to reckon with the Bush 11th hour get-out-the-vote operation.

This is what I call the ostritch strategy. As noted above, this Republican party has demolished the conventional wisdom in three straight elections, on what basis do the Democrats think conventional wisdom will serve them here? The law of averages? True, the Texas redistricting is not in play this year, but what makes the Democrats think the Bush GOTV operation is not really a GOP operation that can translate to record votes in the 2006 elections? The answer is wishful thinking.

There are no indications that the Democrats are in a good place politically. First, their primary ground operatives, the unions, are fighting amongst themselves. Union membership is down some 30 percent over the past 50 years, to just over 12% of U.S. households. Of that 12%, 3 or 4 percent vote Republican--just a statistical fact when you consider that skilled union members often make six figures with overtime--at that level they start voting economic issues-- in line with the GOP.

The so-called advantage of the Democratic 527 organizations did not come through in 2004 and now that the Republicans are fielding their own 527's that "advantage" is likely to be blunted. Finally, depsite record Democratic fundraising, the GOP is still raising more hard money than the Democrats.

So long as the GOP remains the party of ideas and the party of action, not dreams, they will continue to win in Congress.

This Post in a Beltway Traffic Jam

Pelosi Sees '06 House Gains