MoveOn Targets 7 GOP Members

Roll Call is reporting on efforts by the MoveOn PAC and MoveOn.org attacking severn GOP incumbents in hopes of tying them to Tom DeLay and his ethics problems. One can see overtones of the success 1994 GOP revolution strategy in this effort by MoveOn, but there are some different conditions than in 1993 and 1994.

First, Tom DeLay's ethics issues, while considerable in some respects are really no different than many other Members. True, his aides in TRMPAC have been held liable in some violations of Texas campaign finance law, and DeLay has a suspect relationship with lobbyist Jack Abramhoff. But then again, Nancy Pelosi was fined by the FEC for attempting to explicitly circumvent rules on campaign contributions. A number of members, including several prominent Democrats have close ties to Abramhoff.

No, DeLay's ethical problems, while significant do not rise to the problems of the Democratic leadership in 1992. Keep in mind that DeLay's problems are generally DeLay's and no one elses--at least he is no more guilty of ethical lapses than any other Member of Congress. On the other hand in 1992, there were widespread abuses of privilege among Democrats--Remember the House bank scandal, with dozens of lawmakers floating thousands of dollars worth of checks.

The legislative climate also does not favor Democrats. True, Bush has the Social Security issue that could drag down his party in 2006, but not nearly as bad as the health care debacle in 1993-1994. In 1993-1994, the message about health care was that government could do it better, in the face of evidence to the contrary. In 2005, Bush is looking to change Social Security--by giving more control to people rather than the government, a propostion most people respond to, even if they lack the ability to understand it. Bush is not proposing to destroy the institution, as flawed as Social Security may be, rather he is looking to alter it. Clinton sought to dismantle a broken system completely rather than try to repair the system.

Finally, there is the matter of message. Right now, MoveOn and the Democrats have an anti-message--they oppose anything the GOP does. In 1994, the GOP has a message, a unified, easy to understand 10 point message that anyone could understand. So far, the only thing Democrats can say is that the President's Social Security plan is bad, but they have to alternative of their own.

For a short period of time, a party can get away with being anti-majority. But that period is finite and will rarely, if ever, carry the electoral day. As long as the GOP stays active and defining the issue debate, the Democrats will try to rely on their anti-message, but that won't work.

Finally, there is the list of targeted members the MoveOn is going after: Reps. Chris Chocola (Ind.), Melissa Hart (Pa.), Marilyn Musgrave (Colo.), Dave Reichert (Wash.), Rob Simmons (Conn.), Mike Sodrel (Ind.) and Heather Wilson (N.M.). None of these members, while they have received support from DeLay, have particularly close ties to DeLay. Did they vote for DeLay to be the Majority Leader--yes, but that vote is as much about respect for what DeLay has done in the past and seniority as anything else.

Once again, a message is lacking in the Democratic effort. Democrats face a problem with this ad attack. The fact is that most people hate Congress (look at its dismally low approval ratings), but love their Congressman. Hart in particular, is quite popular in her swing district and has been such for a while. There is no imperative for voters to fall in line with Democratic thinking. Most people think that Members of Congress are corrupt anyway (except their Congressman of course) so calling DeLay unscrupulous does nothing. Tying a these Members to DeLay will do little, particularly 18 months out from the next election.

MoveOn is thus wasting $150,000.

With DeLay in Its Sights, MoveOn Targets 7 GOP Members