The Senate race got interesting as soon as Democratic Senator Paul Sarbanes announced his retirement last March. It soon seemed Democrats had the edge. By July, Democratic Congressman Ben Cardin led Lt. Governor Michael Steele by five points in our poll. Steele, however, was seven points ahead of former NAACP President Kweisi Mfume.
By November, Steele was neck-and-neck with Mfume, but Cardin had widened his lead over Steele to 49% to 41%. Yet since that time, the number of voters with an unfavorable opinion of Steele has fallen from 33% to 25% and the Republican candidate has pulled ahead of both Democrats. He now leads Cardin 45% to 40% and Mfume 45% to 38%.
Steele surge may be a combination of a number of factors, including voter fatigue with the Democrats. In a state that is dominated by Democrats, moderates and Independents are expressing a frustration level with Democrats that is undeniable. Failures in the General Assembly, failures in the major jurisdictions, i.e. the People's Republic of Montgomery County, Balitmore and Prince George's County, and failures to address the real needs of voters state-wide have led people in search of alternatives.
Michael Steele has, on his website, focused on five main issues: education, economy, health care, public safety, and protecting the environment. All of these are issues of concern to Marylanders and all issues where the Ehrlich/Steele Administration have done well.
What is interesting is that Steele is eating in to traditional Democratic bases. From Rasmussen:
Steele has increased his support among black voters in a square-off with Mfume. While the latter still wins most of the African-American vote, Steele's share has jumped from 17% in November to 31%.
Thirty-six percent (36%) of all voters now view Mfume favorably, a five-point decline.
It is unusual for a Republican to be so competitive in such a solidly "Blue" state such as Maryland. Election 2004 confirmed that geography rules in contests for the U.S. Senate.
Some good news for Democrats, the election is still 10 months away. The bad news, the primary is September 12 and will likely be quite bruising for Ben Cardin, Kweisi Mfume and the six or seven other candidates. Steele is unopposed and will be able to coast into the General Election season with a full campaign war-chest and the momentum to make a win possible.
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