Measure True Graduation Rates

For many years, one measure of school's success was based on graduation rates. But the means by which graduation rates were calculated were based upon how many students were known to have dropped out. But a new formula that looks at the overall attrition rate has been endorsed by all 50 of the nation's governors.

All 50 governors have agreed to a new method for calculating the graduation rate. Their proposal, which will be adopted in Virginia by 2008, in the District by 2010 and in Maryland by 2011, is fairly simple: Divide the number of freshman in one year by the number of graduates four years later, adjusting for students who transfer in or out or repeat grades.

Applying the new math depends on an accurate count of transfers and students who repeat grades. State education officials say they are working on that and intend to go even further by applying a unique identifier to each student.

Of course, the impact of the new methodology is probably not going to be pretty. For example,

To illustrate the extent of student attrition at different county high schools, The Washington Post analyzed attrition data for the class of 2006 using a method similar to the formula embraced by the governors.

The analysis of head counts from 23 schools, provided by the state education department, found that the class shrank from 11,589 students to 9,743 between freshman year and graduation day. That suggests a graduation rate of about 84 percent, eight points lower than the 92 percent reported by the Maryland State Department of Education.

No one of the items noted was the use of a unique student identifier, which I am puzzled at this point as to why we don't have one. So much more information can be gleaned if schools, both private and public, were using a unique student ID.

But nevertheless, looking at attrition rates will present a much better picture of what is happening on a school by school basis.