Today a Test for GOP Turnout Machine

With control of the House and Senate in jeopardy and the possiblity of reversing GOP trends in traditionally Democratic states, today and tomorrow will be tests for the vaunted GOP Get Out the Vote machinery. In the past three national elections, the GOP has dominated the field in this category of political work, but with the political winds apparently in chaos, can voter turnout prevent a Democratic takeover of the House?

As the Washington Post notes, the parties are laying it all out on the line:

A Pew Research Center poll showed a significant narrowing in the partisan advantage in House races that the Democrats have enjoyed for much of the year, findings that echoed those of a Washington Post-ABC News poll released Saturday showing the Democrats with a six-point edge.

The Pew poll showed that the Democratic advantage had dropped to 47 percent to Republicans' 43 percent among likely voters, down from 50 percent to 39 percent two weeks ago. The poll found a drop in Democratic support among independents, but Pew Director Andrew Kohut said the most significant change over the past two weeks is that Republicans now outnumber Democrats among likely voters.

Separately, a USA Today/Gallup Poll showed Democrats leading Republicans by 51 percent to 44 percent among likely voters on the "generic vote" -- the question of which party voters intend to support in House races -- down from a 13-percentage-point advantage two weeks ago. (emphasis added)

Professor Michael McDonald, who leads George Mason University's United States Elections Project, noted in a recent Washington Post op-ed 5 Myths About Turning Out The Vote ,

The Republican "72-hour campaign" will win the election.

Not necessarily. You can lead citizens to the ballot, but you can't make them vote.

Republicans supposedly have a super-sophisticated last-minute get-out-the-vote effort that identifies voters who'll be pivotal in electing their candidates. Studies of a campaign's personal contact with voters through phone calls, door-to-door solicitation and the like find that it does have some positive effect on turnout. But people vote for many reasons other than meeting a campaign worker, such as the issues, the closeness of the election and the candidates' likeability. Further, these studies focus on get-out-the-vote drives in low-turnout elections, when contacts from other campaigns and outside groups are minimal. We don't know what the effects of mobilization drives are in highly competitive races in which people are bombarded by media stories, television ads and direct mail.

Republican get-out-the-vote efforts could make a difference in close elections if Democrats simply sat on the sidelines. But this year Democrats have vowed to match the GOP mobilization voter for voter. So it'll take more than just knowing whether a prospective voter owns a Volvo or a BMW for Republicans to eke out victory in a competitive race.

In tend to think a little differently that Prof. McDonald. The GOP turnout machine tends to focus heavily on GOP voters. Well, duh, you might say, but is important. The people the GOP are calling and pushing to the polls are exactly those voters most likely to vote for the GOP. While the Democrats focus is largely centered around traditional constituencies like union households, blacks and other minorities or other generic classifications, the GOP targets individual voters. The difference can be seen in voting patterns.

Among Democratic GOTV efforts, the push on groups versus individuals, means that the Dems may turn out more voters, but they may lose a lot in the actual voting as people of these generic groups vote Republican. Witness union households, many of whom will vote Republican for a number of reasons, ranging from national security to immigration, not simply the Democratic line. Contrast that effort with the GOP voter turnout effort which has effectively micro-targeted voters to the point that nearly 100% of the voters they push to the polls will vote GOP. I don't have figures on how much of the Democratic turnout effort is lost due to GOP voters among traditional Democratic constituencies, but it may make a difference come Wednesday.

Democrats still wonder why the GOP turnout is so successful, showing the races tightening up at the rate they are:

Democrats, mindful of the Republicans' success in getting their voters to the polls in the past two elections, expressed nervousness at signs of tightening in some national polls. But they said private and some public polling in contested House districts continued to show their party in a position to win enough seats to claim the majority.

"I don't know what to make of it," said Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill.), chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

Emanuel, among all Democrats, is probably the most politically savvy leader, in terms of electoral politics, to come around in a long time. He should know and apparently does not, or is not expressing why. Turnout efforts are largely a National Committee and state and local operation. Emanuel, whose public fued with DNC Chairman Howard Dean, may fall victim to poor planning and execution by the DNC and the state and local operations. One interesting little vignette in the Washington Post story is this one:

[New Hampshire Democrat]Paul Hodes is getting strategic advice from the DCCC but is relying mostly on a network of volunteers to turn out voters.

"You cannot buy G.O.T.V.," said Dana Houle, campaign manager for Hodes, referring to get-out-the-vote efforts. "You have to lay the foundation in terms of volunteer recruitment months beforehand."

This is a lesson on turnout from 2004 Ohio, where the DNC shipped in hundreds if not thousands of activists from outside the state in the waning days of that election, only to learn that local volunteers outperformed paid workers who lacked connection to local voters.

Turnout, despite what all the pundits and the Post may say, does win elections. The Ground war is the only war that matters, in military and in election campaigns.