Campaign Horseracing

We are a little more than a month away from the next campaign finance filing deadline for presidential canddiates (April 15). Already the speculation is rampant about fundraising numbers in the first quarter. From HotlineBlog at the National Journal:

1. We're fairly certain that Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) raised $12 million through the first of March. Banked means banked; pledges don't qualify. If that figure is correct, and we have reason to believe that it is, Obama will probably amass northwards of $18 million this quarter, and we'll bet that he banks a little more than $13 million. Can Obama build a mid-to-small donor base in time to reap its rewards by the end of the 2nd quarter? Unclear.

2. Expect Sen. Hillary Clinton to transfer $11 million from her Senate campaign account into her presidential account. Informed donor-types believe that she's be able to raise more than $20 million in "new money," giving her a grand total of more than $32 million. One caveat: a not-small percentage of the new money has been shunted to Clinton's general election account and can't be used for the primaries. So expect Clinton to have roughly $16-20M cash on hand when she reports. How much Clinton raises in the second quarter will determine how large her fundraising network really is. Plenty of donors are hedging their bets.

3. Equivocal signs from Sen. John Edwards's camp. But a $12-15M quarter is reasonable. His second quarter matters more than his first quarter. He probably needs to raise just as much. His fundraising drop-off from Q1 to Q2 in 2003 hurt his campaign more than some of his advisers care to admit.

Expect Gov. Bill Richardson and Sen. Chris Dodd to do just fine.

Republican donors talk less, so it's harder to gauge the pace of fundraising for the GOP candidates.

It's very possible that ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney outraises or almost outraises Sen. John McCain this quarter. Romney's forest of low-hanging fruits is enormous: RGA, personal connections, Olympics, Mormons (Realistic to say he'll get $7M from members of the LDS church this quarter?), Bain connections, some Bush '43 fundraisers, Mass tech companies, Harvard, Harvard, etc. We hear that Romney finance types are actually asking some of their major fundraisers to slow down a little; their goal is to surprise the field in the second quarter, more so than on 4/15.

McCain's fundraising is proceeding well; he's raising money from a different donor base than in '00, and there are bound to be some thorny patches. But no one from his campaign evinces doubt that he'll be in the top two.

Ex-NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani will probably raise more than $10 million. His second quarter is very important

Hotline is careful to note that Second quarter fundraising has a greater impact on prospects that first quarter, for reasons passing understanding.