Huffington Post writer Roy Sekoff is stating that his sources indicate that Senator Barack Obama will raise more money that Hillary Clinton in the second quarter, despite the fact that there are more than three weeks left in the quarter.
I actually thought this would happen. In reality, during the firs quarter of the year, Obama and Clinton were almost dead even in fundraising except for one thing--Hillary Clinton transferred $10 million from her Senate campaign (a completely legal move). In contributions other than transfers, Obama raised $25,709,104.90 and Clinton raised $26,054,302.28, a difference of just $345,197, a difference driven largely by the $236,000 Clinton raised from PACs. Clinton raised more $2,300 contributions than Obama, but that is actually a limitation on fundraising. A donor who has given you $2,300 in for the primary campaign, can give no more. The pool of $2,300 donors is much smaller and once tapped, canont be visited again. A donor who has given less can still give you more as time wears on and that is probably how Obama will succeed in raising more money--he has a larger pool of people he can return to for additional funds.
The second quarter fundraising is probably going to push John Edwards from top tier to second tier candidacy. The Democratic race will be between Obama and Clinton.