Is 2006 the Democrats 1994 Revolution?

The Sacremento Bee recently asked this question. The short answer is no.

First, while Democratic missteps both in the Clinton Administration in terms of the health care agenda and others and in Congress with their check kiting scandals and other ethical problems lent a certain impetus to voting the Democrats out of power. But the ethical problems and management problems of the GOP now seem to be giving the media and others on the left hope that 2006 may see a turnover in Congressional control.

But there is a very big problem--lack of a coherent Democratic strategy. The biggest reason why the GOP took control in 1994 was not frustration with a Democratic Congress, but a coherent, easily understood and broadly supported agenda. The Contract with America was broad enough to allow candidates to easily express their major policy goals while at the same time narrow enough for candidates to address local issues.

Today, the Democrats lack any sort of coherent national strategy, indeed they have not had one since the Clinton years. The lack of this identifying theme means that Democrats are going to struggle to overcome the normal mindset of voters, i.e. "I hate Congress, but love my Congressman."

The ethical problems of DeLay and Frist, the mismanagement by the Bush administration on a number of issues certainly detract from the attractiveness of the GOP, but these alone will not be enough to cause a massive shift in Congressional representation to allow the Democrats to take control.

Linked to the OTB Traffic Jam.