Thursday, February 07, 2008

Five More Reasons Hillary Should Be Worried

In addition to my notes about her campaign finance plan, Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen have five more reasons:
1. She lost the delegate derby. Pure and simple, this is a war to win delegates, one that might not be decided until this summer’s Democratic convention.... Super Tuesday was essentially a draw.

Clinton may still hold the edge overall, but Obama is closing in rapidly.

2. She essentially tied Obama in the popular vote. Each won just over 7.3 million votes, a level of parity that was unthinkable as recently as a few weeks ago...

One reason is that polls and primary results reveal that the more voters get to know Obama, the more they seem to like him.

This is especially troubling for Clinton since the schedule slows dramatically now and a full month will pass before the next big-state showdown.

3. She lost more states. Obama carried 14 states, six more than Clinton, and showed appeal in every geographical region.

His win in bellwether Missouri was impressive by nearly every measure, marked by victories among men and women, secular and churchgoing voters, and urban and suburban voters.

4. She lost the January cash war. Money chases momentum, so Obama crushing’s 2-to-1 fundraising victory last month is revealing....

5. The calendar is her enemy. Now that more than half the states have weighed in, there is a fairly predictable formula for determining who is most likely to win the upcoming contests.

In caucus states, Obama’s organizational strength shines: He has won seven of eight. Up next are three more caucus states, Washington, Nebraska and Maine.

Obama also runs tremendously well in states with large African-American populations, another promising sign since next Tuesday’s three primaries are in the District of Columbia, Maryland and Virginia — all of which have significant percentages of black voters.

Then comes another caucus state, Hawaii, where Obama is viewed as a native son.

The bottom line is that it figures to be another month before Clinton hits a stretch of states — places like Ohio and Pennsylvania — where she will be strongly favored to win.
She might not have the money to survive until Pennsylvania if her current fundraising efforts are any indication. Assuming she raised $14 million, not counting her loan to her campaign, then the loan would give her $19 million. The question still remains, how much of that money is designated for the General Election? Past peformce is indicating that between 7 and 10 percent of all the money she raises is for an election she might not even be partcipating in. Ohio and Texas are expensive states to run campaigns in, between the costs of ads and the need to travel to some pretty far flung places in Texas, it ain't going to be cheap. With all the money she is literrally hemoragging, Hillary Clinton may be done by the time Ohio and Texas are over.

No comments: