The Presidential Campaign So Far

William Kristol looks at the campaign so far, noting that despite the "early start" we are almost halfway to the New Hampshire Primary and Iowa caucuses (can you believe it). Kristol notes that the Democratic campaign has been pretty steady, but the GOP campaign has been a bit more volatile. This graph grabbed my attention though:

So whereas three-fifths of the Democratic vote now goes to the two front-runners, fewer than half of Republicans support Giuliani or McCain. What's more, one recent survey had only 52% of Republican primary voters saying they were satisfied with the current crop of candidates running for their party's Presidential nomination, compared with 77% of Democratic primary voters. The door is open far wider for Thompson—and perhaps Gingrich—to enter the G.O.P. race than it is for Gore to join the Democratic contest.

Honestly, I think that bodes well for the GOP.

Primary races that are real races tend to forge a candidate far better than a presumptive nominee. Hillary Clinton is getting a decent challenge from Obama, but in the end, she will probably win the nomination more out of sheer inertia than anything she has actually done to win the nomination.

But the candidate who wins the GOP nod will have spent months in a bruising primary fight that tends to toughen a candidate to the demands of campaigning. A contested primary sharpens the candidate and the team behind the candidate, making them much more formidable than a team that was not challenged as much.

Right now, I have to say I like Giuliani's chances but if Thompson or Gingrich get in the fray, it is going to be a rough ride for the nation's mayor and whoever comes out on top will be the better candidate, not necessarily the right candidate, but a better candidate.