Univision's Citizenship Drive

For the most part, I like any attempt to get more voters into the polls and I certainly don't mind it when American companies are leading the way. Univision, the largest Spanish language channel in America, is underwriting a drive to get more Hispanics onto the citizenship rolls and into the voting booth. The Wall Street Journal carried a front page story yesterday on the effort, noting that some 8 million green card holders in America are eligible to become citizens, the majority of which are Spanish speaking.

Writing in American Thinker, Ed Lasky responds:

The Journal article pointed out the momentous electoral consequences of this development: since Hispanics tend to vote Democratic an increasingly large number of them with a right to vote will favor the Democratic party in 2008. This is particularly so since so many Spanish-speaking residents are concentrated in states rich in electoral votes. This unprecedented effort on the part of Univision could very likely swing the Presidential election to the Democratic Party.

This statement by Lasky carries an element of truth, that is most Hispanics are concentrated in electoral vote rich states, but the effort may not yeild fruit for the Democrats by itself, because those electoral vote rich states are states that already tend to vote Democratic anyway, California, New York, Illinois.

Texas and Florida are a little different though. Both have gone to the GOP in the past two elections and the narrowness of the vote in Florida over the past several elections could result in a change for that state. Texas may not be as quick to change columns.

But Florida is a little quirky when it comes to Hispanic voting. First, the Hispanic vote in Florida is not nearly as monolithically Democratic as either Lasky, the WSJ or the Democratic party would have you beleive. Cuban exiles, which voter overwhelmingly Republican have pretty solid sway among the Hispanic community, such that the vote in Florida nears a split rather than a slam dunk Democratic vote.

Add to these factors the fact that Hispanics tend to be overwhelmingly Catholic, and that conservative leaning church takes some stances on social issues like abortion, homosexual marriage and family issues that put Hispanics squarely at odds with the Democratics platform. Reconciling those views with poverty programs and immigration policy makes the Hispanic vote much more volatile than most people might think.

Kudos to Univision (and I don't agree with the conspiracy theory Lasky is pushing in his piece related to Univision's investors) for trying to get more people to the polls, in the end it really does make our country a little better.